The United States and Iran are navigating a fragile path toward a cease-fire agreement, though significant obstacles remain unresolved as of mid-June. President Trump has circulated a draft peace agreement among allies, and both sides have indicated they are moving closer to a deal, but fundamental disagreements continue to complicate negotiations.
The proposed agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within 30 days, lift the US blockade on Iranian ports, and grant Iran access to approximately $12 billion in frozen assets. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program would commence within 60 days and would address its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, impose a time-limited suspension on further enrichment, and establish supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Under the terms, Iran would renounce the use of nuclear weapons.
However, significant disagreements persist. US Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that both parties remain focused on "a couple of sticking points" concerning Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment practices. Pakistan's foreign minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, was scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to accelerate negotiations.
The situation remains volatile. Tehran attacked a US airbase in Kuwait after Washington struck what it called an Iranian drone operation near the strait, underscoring the precarious nature of the ceasefire established on April 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reasserted control over the waterway, requiring permission for passage and stopping ships attempting to transit with transponders disabled.
A major point of contention involves navigation fees. Iran has attempted to negotiate a separate agreement with Oman that would impose tolls for "navigational services," while the US draft asserts toll-free navigation. Trump threatened on Wednesday to "blow up" Oman if it reached such an agreement with Tehran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this position, warning of sanctions against any countries assisting Iran in implementing tolls.
Israel presents another complication. The current draft's deferral of Iran's firm nuclear commitments and requirement for a permanent ceasefire including Lebanon are reportedly unpalatable to Israeli leadership. Additionally, the draft is less specific than Iran's version regarding lifting sanctions on Iran's oil and petrochemical exports.
Iran's deputy foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, has reiterated demands that frozen assets be released into Iranian bank accounts without conditions. Washington countered by imposing sanctions on Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
Trump's public statements have created uncertainty. After initially suggesting a preliminary agreement could be signed by the weekend, he later distanced himself from those comments with critical social media posts characterizing Iranian officials as "very dishonorable people to deal with."
China is pressing for UN Security Council ratification of any agreement. Oil prices climbed 2 percent on Thursday but remained below $100 a barrel, reflecting cautious market sentiment about the talks' prospects.